It's war, not hybrid war
And with some political will, we would win.
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT
In the last two weeks, US intelligence officials publicly warned US defense companies to increase safeguards because Russian intelligence has been plotting and executing acts of sabotage in an effort to disrupt aid to Ukraine. Separately, journalist Jason Leopold got the Director of National Intelligence to declassify a list of all the deaths in the West Russia is suspected of carrying out on orders from Vladimir Putin. A DHL plane crashed in Vilnius, Lithuania, less than three weeks after Western officials confirmed Russian military intelligence, the GRU, was plotting to do exactly that. Two major undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were intentionally cut. A Chinese ship with a Russian captain was navigating directly over the cables at the time. Several drones swarmed over US air force bases in the United Kingdom. Another week, another list of reminders that we are at war with Russia, even if we refuse to believe it. (For other examples, see my past Rants here and here.)
At the same time, Russian propaganda is flowing freely through our information ecosystem. This week, podcaster Joe Rogan repeated a common Kremlin narrative—that the use of US weapons in Ukraine will lead to World War Three—leading Ukrainian boxer Wladimir Klitschko to fire back, “Let me tell you that you're repeating the propaganda of Putin. Putin’s Russia is in trouble, so they want to scare you and people like you. His war was supposed to last three days, it has lasted three years thanks to the heroism and sacrifice of my people. So you are using the only weapon that Putin really intends to use: propaganda. And this weapon really weakens our democracies. Putin’s Russia wants to destroy Ukraine quietly, they want America to stay quiet. Not great, but quiet.” For more background on influence campaigns, see my past Rants here and here, as well as pretty much any class in my Foreign Influence Operations course.
All this to say: Russia is attacking us on a regular basis, both physically and through influence operations. These “hybrid” attacks are meant, as Klitschko said, to scare us into inaction. They are meant to break NATO and the Western Alliance by breaking our unity. To understand why, see here and here.
These attacks are meant to be serious enough to increase fear in the West—to make us scared of escalation—and cause some disruption, but not so serious as to invite a full-fledged military response. (Side note: Russia in no way would be able to repel a full-fledged military response, which is precisely why Putin wants to break NATO. When Russia failed to achieve its objective of taking Kyiv in three days, a joke went around that Russia was no longer the second greatest military in the world, but rather the second greatest military in Ukraine. Now that Ukraine has taken land inside Russia, I’d argue Russia is the second greatest military inside Russia).
I’d be willing to bet that, if we averaged out Russian attacks on NATO countries since the beginning of the full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it would come out to a physical attack every other day, plus multiple information/influence attacks every day.
This isn’t hybrid war. It’s war. It is meant to break the cultures and societies in which we live and thrive. It is meant to destroy our values. It is meant to destroy us. And it is part of a much larger war Putin is waging on the West.
Meanwhile, the kinetic part of the war in Ukraine continues. It is there that Putin must lose. Our response to these attacks in the West should be to provide more weapons and support to Ukraine. As this letter (which I signed, along with people way smarter than me) outlines, with a little political will from the West (even without the United States), Ukraine could win this thing, sending Putin to his inevitable dethroning (or, more likely, his defenestration).
Russia’s economy is tanking. Sanctions are working. The rouble is dropping like an anvil. Inflation is up 71 percent, by some estimates. Mortgage rates are at 28 percent. Interest rates are at 21 percent. Putin is spending about 6 percent of Russia’s GDP plus thousands of lives a day to keep this war of attrition going. While the front line is not frozen, Russia has not advanced nearly as far or as fast as initial estimates pointed to.
Many European countries, meanwhile, are not even spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense (the Baltic and Nordic states—that is, those countries with a recent memory of what Russian imperialism looks like in real life—are spending more and doing more). Furthermore, billions of Russian assets sit frozen in the West. The interest from those frozen assets could easily fund Ukraine, even if the US under Trump stops providing aid.
With a little political will from the West, Ukraine can win. And Putin’s loss in Ukraine is the best way to ensure our own security from his attacks against us. As long as he thinks we are not united, that we are weak and unwilling to punch back, he will continue to attack us at home. This war is much bigger than what is happening in Ukraine. Russia is at war with us. It’s time we started acting like it.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of things you should be reading
WEALTH AND CORRUPTION
The super-rich and their secret worlds (Coda Story)
BREAKING INTELLIGENCE
Tulsi Gabbard’s history with Russia is even more concerning than you think (The Independent)
Trump’s return raises questions over future of CIA’s Russian recruitment drive (The Guardian)
BREAKING DEMOCRACY
Donald Trump’s return sends shivers through the anti-misinformation world (FT)
I Watched Orbán Destroy Hungary’s Democracy. Here’s My Advice for the Trump Era (Politico)
How Trump Plans to Seize the Power of the Purse From Congress (ProPublica)
Trump officials to receive immediate clearances and easier FBI vetting (The Guardian)
Ukrainian boxer Wladimir Klitschko jabs Joe Rogan for spreading Russian propaganda (Politico)
Devoted Aide Who Keeps Good News Flowing Will Follow Trump to the White House (New York Times)
RUSSIAN SABOTAGE
US defense sites in Europe should bolster protection against risk of Russian sabotage, agencies say (Stars and Stripes)
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
Joe Rogan .. get in the right side of America .. your voice can be helpful or it can tear this country apart .. think about what you are doing and stop justifying so much of the misinformation you are spreading .. get some new people.. take s neutral position .. talk about both sides