Shadow War, Shadow Fleet
In Europe, Russia turns up the heat
I had the pleasure of talking with Slovak journalist Andrej Matisak about my books, sabotage, yachts, and whether Russia’s intelligence services can install an American president. Have a listen here.
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT
We’re going to be hearing a lot about sabotage in the coming months. Specifically, Russian acts of sabotage against the West. All part of Russia’s hybrid war, because remember: Even if we don’t think we are at war with Russia, Russia is at war with us.
Several Western intelligence agencies have publicized recently that Russia is suspected of carrying out a number of acts of sabotage and warned that these will continue.
Poland has arrested a dozen individuals for their connections to acts of sabotage in that country on behalf of Russian security services. The acts included beatings, arson, and attempted arson.
As I wrote here, Germany recently arrested two individuals who were scouting sites for sabotage, including US military facilities, on behalf of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU. Russia is being blamed for jamming GPS signals of civilian airliners and of targeting train signaling systems in Europe.
The UK charged a group for carrying out an arson attack on behalf of the GRU on a depot that housed supplies for Ukraine. That company’s Spanish facility was also attacked. One of the individuals arrested in Poland was preparing to pass information on Rzeszow airport in Poland to the GRU. That airport is a main hub for supplying weapons to Ukraine.
A fire at an IKEA store in Lithuania is being investigated for possibly being arson on behalf of Russia, as is a major fire at a shopping mall in Warsaw, Poland. Norway and Finland are concerned, too. Norway’s police warned of acts of sabotage against that country’s arm deliveries to Ukraine, as well as against its oil and gas and power facilities. Finland has been warning of Russian attacks with the aim of weakening Western support for Ukraine.
Increasingly, Russia is relying on individuals with criminal ties to carry out these acts, as many Russian intelligence officers have been kicked out of Europe or arrested. It is organized crime, on behalf of a mafia state.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said such operations show Russia is waging a “shadow war” against the West.
Shadow War, Shadow Fleet
The shadow war doesn’t end with sabotage. Also this week, under cover of night, Russia moved a number of buoys marking the Estonia-Russia border in the Narva River. Some of the buoys that were removed had marked areas Russia has disputed in the past.
Separately, Russia released a draft report to unilaterally change its maritime border in the Baltic Sea. The draft was later deleted after an uproar from the West. It is a typical tactic: Announce your plan, then claim it was a bureaucratic mistake if anyone complains.
"Another Russian hybrid operation is underway, this time attempting to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said this week. "This is an obvious escalation against NATO and the EU, and must be met with an appropriately firm response."
The head of Sweden’s armed forces also highlighted the danger coming from Russia with these moves. "Putin's goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea," he told Germany's RND website. "The Baltic Sea must not become Putin's playground where he can strike fear into Nato members."
All eyes are on the Swedish island of Gotland. If Russia were to gain control of this island in the Baltic Sea, it would be a major strategic win for them. Russia’s shadow fleet—vessels that operate outside the official maritime sector and have obscure ownership and non-existent insurance—has been increasingly surveilling the area around Gotland. Many of these vessels are equipped with specialized communications equipment—that is, spy equipment—allowing the vessels to intercept communications (signals intelligence).
It’s likely these vessels are collecting intelligence to support any sabotage operations in the area, be it on undersea cables or energy infrastructure. Plenty of questions still remain about the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines. Was that an act of Russian sabotage?
But what does it all mean?
All this maneuvering points to Moscow setting the stage for its next act: a deeper push into the Baltics, with the anticipation that the West will not respond, a fear I wrote about after my visit to Estonia.
Daily Show correspondent Jordan Klepper also recently went to Estonia. It’s worth watching his entire segment, which is both informative and funny, but he, too, seemed to have an epiphany about just how serious this issue is for those directly in Putin’s crosshairs. (Here is the link to the full video. Below is a short version.)
Again, it’s worth watching the full video (which includes an interview with George Kline Preston IV, whom I wrote about here).
Let’s All Repeat It Together: Even if we don’t think we are at war with Russia, Russia is at war with us.
If a bully keeps punching you, even if you refuse to punch back, you are still in a fight involving the bully. Eventually, Russian sabotage is going to kill Europeans and/or Americans. Maybe it is time to punch back.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of things you should be reading or watching
PROFESSOR TIMOTHY SNYDER COMPARES TODAY TO 1938
Again, worth watching the whole video, but it’s long, so here is a segment I think is important. If Ukraine loses, Russia will have all of Ukraine’s resources to use to fight its next imperialist war (likely against the Baltics).
DISINFORMATION
How Kremlin uses false fact checks to spread disinformation (VOA News)
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
It’s such a slow slog to get down to the business at hand. Appeasement is hoping the crocodile will eat you last.
Yes. Punch the f*ck back. Starting with removing restrictions on Ukraine’s employment of ATACMS, and all western weapons. Then? Vote the Russian proxies out of office here.