Estonia Knows What Is At Stake In Ukraine
A trip to Tallinn made the war much more real for me
I was happy to join former BBC Newsnight host Gavin Esler on This Is Not A Drill podcast to talk about Putin's attempts to destabilize the Western Alliance, the increased use of "strategic declassification," and why human intelligence is still important in our increasingly tech-filled world. Have a listen here.
ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT
I recently returned from a trip to Tallinn, Estonia. It was an overwhelming and moving experience, and I wanted to share it with you.
The war in Ukraine feels much more real in Estonia. Indeed, as I have said many times, the war in Ukraine is the kinetic part of a much larger war Russia is waging against NATO and the Western alliance, a point rarely expressed and little understood in Europe and the United States. What happens in Ukraine will determine the world order for the coming generation (at least). Will we maintain a democratic society, or will we enter an era of authoritarianism?
Estonians know what is at stake.
The country was occupied by both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, the latter for fifty years. Estonians know about forced Russification, the process through which Russia forced subservience and loyalty. The occupiers suppressed local culture and imposed the primacy of all things Russian. Singing a song in Estonian could get you tortured and deported.
The same process is being carried out today in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Want a job? Want to go to school? Want to see a doctor? Speak Russian and trade your Ukrainian passport for a Russian one. Otherwise, those normal everyday things become impossible.
Estonians know what is at stake.
They know the pain of forced deportations. This week marked the 75th anniversary of Soviet deportations of more than 20,000 Estonians to Siberia. In all, the USSR deported 20 percent of the entire Estonian population. One in five people, in a country of one million. Gone. (Click on the photo to read the full tweet thread from Estonia’s prime minister.)
While in Tallinn, I met people whose families had been deported. One showed me the names of his family members at the Victims of Communism Memorial. I visited the cells in the basement of the Interior Ministry, where the KGB had its way with political prisoners. I listened to stories about people locked in isolation boxes in there, people who underwent unimaginable torture for refusing to bow to their Russian masters.
Estonians know what is at stake.
I watched as Russians living in Tallinn lined up to “vote” at the Russian embassy in a presidential election whose outcome was already known. They stood in a line behind barriers decorated with signs and symbols criticizing Russia’s actions, in Ukraine, in Georgia, in Russia: “500 Days of Terror!” “Putin is a Killer!” “Putin killed Navalny!” A bloody teddy bear hung from the barrier. Protesters carried their own signs: “Russia without dictators!” “I’m against Putin.”
We ate at Odessa, a restaurant set up by two Ukrainian refugees. A small way to show our solidarity. The restaurant sits across from a Georgian bar. Many Georgians have also fled Russian terror and found solace in Estonia. Several photo exhibits in Tallinn’s Telleskivi neighborhood document the atrocities Russia has unleashed on Georgia. One photo shows an old lady crying out while standing behind barbed wire outside her home. Like a new Berlin wall, Russian forces blocked her in on their side of the dividing line in South Ossetia when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008.
The war is much more real here.
I spoke with people who understand the threat from Russian propaganda and other influence activities. Estonia fought to remove Russian propaganda like RT from Estonian television. They understand this isn’t a free speech issue, that propaganda and disinformation are weapons.
East Versus West
The US and Western Europe seem not to understand why Eastern Europe takes the threat from Russia so seriously. Eastern Europe cannot understand why we don’t.
I can’t understand it either. We may not think we are at war with Russia. But Russia certainly thinks it is at war with us. We are in this, whether we like it or not.
I can’t shake a terrible feeling: that the United States and Western Europe would sacrifice the Baltics if it came down to it. If Putin were to order his military into Estonia, or Latvia or Lithuania, how would the United States and the rest of Europe respond? NATO’s Article V states an attack on one is an attack on all. It is the keystone of the concept of “collective security” that the organization was created for. And like any keystone, if it fails, the whole thing crumbles.
Estonia understands this. They know what is at stake. That is why the country’s foreign minister last week stated he will seek guarantees for Europe’s eastern flank from any new director of NATO.
If Article V is tested and fails, it will mean the end of the Western Alliance and this wonderful democratic experiment that has made our societies the wealthiest, healthiest, and most free in history.
Strategic Unity
For years, Putin has tried to destabilize the West and break up our alliances. He needs us not to be united. It is the only way he can achieve his vision of a new Russian empire.
There is hope. The unity has held, albeit precariously in my view, for two years. But we haven’t done enough to ensure victory for Ukraine and thus for ourselves.
It was while I was in Tallinn that French President Emmanuel Macron—after years of talking about placating Russia—finally seemed to grasp the urgency. He stated in an interview that the current conflict is “existential,” adding that a Russian victory in Ukraine “would reduce Europe’s credibility to zero.”
“If Russia were to win,” he said, “the lives of French people would change. We would no longer have security in Europe."
He was speaking to the French people, but what he said holds for all of us. If Russia were to win in Ukraine, all of our lives would change.
The war in Ukraine is very real and its outcome will affect us all. Estonians understand what is at stake. I wish everyone else understood, too.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of stories you should be reading
RUSSIA
Russia Amps Up Online Campaign Against Ukraine Before U.S. Elections (NYTimes)
Czechs Bust Major Russian Propaganda Network (AFP)
Putin’s Spy Chief Visited North Korea (Reuters)
Russian network that ‘paid European politicians’ busted, authorities claim (BBC)
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
Listen to the Baltic nations , support their info war against nazi Putin 🇺🇦👊
Excellent post. I wish I could mainline this into the minds of everyone in the US who is downplaying the importance of what’s happening in Ukraine.