Rubio's Munich Speech, the False Sigh of Relief, and the Appearance (Finally!) of Demands on Russia
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT!
Neither Americans nor Europeans should breathe a sigh of relief after Marco Rubio’s reportedly conciliatory speech at the recent Munich Security Conference. Painted as a stark contrast to JD Vance’s speech last year—which praised Europe’s far-right parties, accused Europe of not upholding democratic values, and claimed its domestic political actions were a greater threat than Russia—Rubio’s delivery may have been more diplomatic but the substance was the same. He warned Europe of “civilizational erasure” and talked a lot about Christian values. More to the point, his actions, and those of others in the Trump administration, should provide no comfort to anyone hoping the US might return as a reliable ally to democratic states anytime soon.
At the foremost security conference in Europe, not only did Rubio not mention the continent’s bloodiest war since WW2, he also skipped a meeting among European leaders about Russia’s war in Ukraine, then left Munich to meet with Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, the two most anti-Ukraine leaders in Europe who are also working hardest to kill democracy there.
“We want this country to do well,” Rubio told Orban. “It’s in our national interest -- especially as long as you’re the prime minister and the leader of this country.”
I’m not sure how it is in the US national interest to have Orban, who has paved the way for Hungary’s democratic backsliding, remain prime minister. Although democratic backsliding does seem right up Trump’s alley. Russia, too, needs this. Indeed, Rubio’s visit was celebrated by Russian state TV.
It is now US policy now to support anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia leaders actively moving their countries away from democracy. The US plans to provide financial support to conspiracy-addled right-wing think tanks in Europe under the guise of free speech in hopes of repeating the ghoulish MAGA experiment on the other side of the pond.
To help this along, in addition to shutting down any program in the US aimed at countering malign information operations and sanctioning non-US individuals who were working on those issues, the US is now dismantling Europe’s defenses.
The US is launching the web site “freedom.gov” through the US State Department. The portal allows people in Europe and elsewhere to see content blocked by their governments. While the US paints this as getting around “government censorship”, the reality is that it allows access to malign information from Russia and elsewhere aimed at boosting far-right parties and pro-Kremlin narratives. Indeed, it seems designed to achieve that objective.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Duma just passed a bill giving the FSB the right to shut down mobile and internet services in the country. It is shutting down WhatsApp and Telegram and turning them into state surveillance tools, forcing state-run media on its population, and throwing people in jail for criticizing the “special military operation” (don’t call it a war!), but sure, it’s Europe that has a free speech problem.
Kaja Kallas, Europe’s top diplomat, clapped back at Rubio’s and other Americans’ criticism of free speech in Europe. “Coming from the country that is number two in the press freedom index [Estonia], hearing criticism regarding press freedom coming from a country that is 58 on this list [the US] is interesting.” Her delivery was pitch perfect, by the way.
No Peace In Our Time
At the same time, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff continued to negotiate the business plan posing as a peace plan with Russia. In fact, these two are very busy since this was only one of three peace deals they were looking to solve this week. Aim high, my guys!
To no one’s surprise, the talks proved “difficult” and provided no breakthrough. Maybe they should focus on one peace deal at a time?
Despite Jared and Witkoff’s thrice-divided attention, Europe’s intelligence agencies believe there is little chance of an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict this year. Europe seemed finally to wake up to the reality that both the US and Russia are using the negotiations not to end the conflict but to strike business deals. For some background on the business plan posing as a peace plan, read this:
Germany’s Friedrich Merz said the only way to end the war is "to ensure that the Russian state cannot continue to wage war militarily or finance it economically." He said he considers it "virtually impossible" for normal relations with Putin to ever be restored. "When I look at this regime and its furious terror, I have little hope," he said.
Kallas noted at Munich that “The greatest threat Russia presents right now is that it gains more at the negotiating table than it has achieved on the battlefield.” She then circulated a draft document outlining Europe’s demands on Russia, since the US is only making demands on Ukraine.
As reported by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the document outlines the following “EU maximalist” demands:
In the first chapter, titled Russia to Respect Independence, Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of States, the main idea is that if Ukraine should cap its troop levels or even withdraw them from some areas -- something discussed during the US-mediated talks -- then Russia should do the same. It also demands that no “de jure” recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories occur and that those areas are de-militarized.
The next chapter, A Secure and Stable Europe, includes a demand that “Russia stops disinformation campaigns, sabotage, cyber-attacks, airspace violations and interference in elections on European territory and in neighbouring countries.”
Another ultimatum stipulates no nuclear weapons in Belarus and a “ban of Russian military presence and deployments in Belarus, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Armenia.” Russian troops have for decades been stationed in Russian-controlled breakaway regions such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdniester, as well as bases in Armenia and Belarus.
On the need for Moscow to adhere to international law, the call by the EU includes no blanket amnesty for war crimes, access for international investigators to sites of suspected war crimes, and that no domestic Russian law is elevated above international treaties spelling out various Russian obligations globally.
When it comes to reparations, the text notes that “Russia must compensate and contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction, for damages to European states and European companies, and for ecological damages it has caused.”
The EU has frozen some 210 billion euros worth of Russian sovereign wealth assets but has so far failed to agree on a method to either legally confiscate them or leverage them to channel funds to Ukraine. Brussels has, however, sent the quarterly windfall profits of this money to Kyiv.
The final demands concern the domestic situation in Russia with the paper calling for free and fair elections with international monitoring, a release of all political prisoners, a return of deported civilians and children, media freedom, a repeal of the foreign agent law, ceasing “historical falsification and other laws that criminalize dissent and delegitimize independent media and civil society” and full cooperation in investigations of the killings of the Russian opposition leaders Aleksei Navalny and Boris Nemtsov.
All of these points are fully justified by international law. What is so frustrating here is that the US truly does have the leverage to force these maximalist demands on Russia. The Trump administration is choosing not to. Rather, it is choosing to support pro-Russia leaders in Europe and to help Russia destabilize Europe from within. The US is also allowing Russia to continue its devastating war in Ukraine.
Rubio’s speech might have been delivered with softer language, but in the greatest conflict facing the world today, that between democracy and autocracy, the US has chosen its side. And it’s not the right one.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of things you should be reading
OLIGARCH IMPUNITY
One Man Stole $660 Million. He’ll Never Pay It Back. (NYT)
RUSSIA LOSING IN UKRAINE
Russian army casualties in Ukraine surge (FT)
EXCELLENT RESOURCES!
Just Security has launched WHAT JUST HAPPENED? as well as a litigation tracker to help readers keep up with the chaos
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
