Who's afraid of the big bad Putin?
US officials worry about Russian escalation, but what's he going to do? Start a war? Attack Americans? Guess what, he already has.
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT
Russia keeps punching us, and America keeps holding back.
This week, US officials admonished Ukraine for striking Russia inside Russia. Ukrainian drones have struck several Russian oil refineries—used to fund Russia’s war— and a drone factory that had been manufacturing drones, which have been used to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukraine hit military targets. Russia hit (and continues to hit) civilian targets, leaving millions of Ukrainians without electricity and water. There is also this small detail: Russia invaded Ukraine.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken for some godforsaken reason told Ukraine to cut it out. "It has been our view and policy from day one when it comes to Ukraine to do everything we possibly can to help Ukraine defend itself against this Russian aggression. At the same time, we have neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside of its territory,” he said at a press conference this week.
The US ambassador to NATO said similar: "That [Ukraine striking inside Russia] is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of. We are focused on the right to defend its territory, to push Russians out of its territory."
Also this week, a joint investigation by CBS 60 Minutes, The Insider, and Der Spiegel about so-called Havana Syndrome added to the mounting pile of evidence that Russia is to blame for these acoustic attacks on American officials serving both overseas and at home. The attacks, now called anomalous health incidents, have debilitated hundreds of our government officers, leaving them with traumatic brain injuries. I highly recommend watching the 60 Minutes piece (as well as the 60 Minutes Overtime clips) and reading the written accounts. The Insider does a great job laying out the case for Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) being the culprit and identifies the unit, the same unit involved in assassinations and bombings in Europe.
Most of us have long suspected Russia was behind these acoustic attacks on American officials.
Greg Edgreen, a retired Pentagon official who was in charge of the military investigation into Havana Syndrome, told 60 Minutes, “If my mother had seen what I saw, she’d say, ‘It’s the Russians, stupid.’” He added, “If I’m wrong about Russia being behind anomalous health incidents, I will come onto your show and I will eat my tie.”
He seems pretty convinced.
The US government, however, has been reticent to blame Russia. Actually, reticent is too nice a word. Afraid is a better word. The US has been afraid to blame Russia. Why? Because these are direct attacks on Americans, sometimes on American soil. If the US admits that, it has to respond, or openly admit it is doing nothing to protect its people.
It’s worth noting here that, privately, the US government has provided some of these employees with compensation, implying their injuries are work-related.
Regardless, the end result is that many of our officials with deep knowledge of Russia have been neutralized, taken out of service, by Russia, and we are doing…what?
Fear of Escalation
Time and again we have heard from US officials some iteration of: we don’t want to provoke Putin, we don’t want him to escalate.
But Putin keeps escalating anyway, even when we do nothing.
Vladimir Lenin used to say, “You probe with bayonets. If you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.” So far, Putin has found mostly mush.
The man has already ordered his security services to attack our personnel. He has sent hit squads to murder his enemies seeking safety in our country and those of our allies. He takes innocent Americans and throws them in jail, accusing them of being spies with no evidence, just to hold onto them and use them to swap to get his killers back. He has interfered in our elections and run massive information operations against us that have manipulated our public debate.
He has blamed the US for the Ukrainian revolution that drove out the corrupt Viktor Yanukovych from Ukraine. He blames the CIA for any dissension in Russia. He has now blamed the US for the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, which ISIS has claimed (a claim backed by a lot of evidence).
Nothing we have done has discouraged him.
If Putin and his minions are going to blame us for everything anyway, we might as well fight with all we’ve got. Give Ukraine everything it needs to win. Don’t tell them to hold back in their targeting. Call Putin and his security services out for attacking our people. And please, oh please, run some of our own covert action to fuck with him. He’s going to blame us no matter what. We might as well get the benefit of doing it.
But Nukes!
Won’t Russia use a nuclear weapon if we provoke them? This is one of the most common fears of escalation I hear, probably because every time Putin thinks the West might step up and do something, he threatens to use nukes. It’s a scare tactic. Here, I will point to this article written by Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who spent a fair amount of his time going up against the Russians. Read the whole article, but this part on nukes is particularly relevant:
At critical junctions in the war, Putin and other members of his inner circle have consistently directly or indirectly threatened to use nuclear weapons, but there are powerful restraints, including voiced opposition from China and India.
Russia has used nuclear blackmail to deter the West regarding help for Ukraine. This has met with some success in making America reluctant to provide Ukraine with weapons Russia might see as “provocative.” So long as this tactic works, Russia will continue to use it.
Nevertheless, longstanding Russian nuclear doctrine calls for nuclear weapon use only if the survival of the Russian state is at stake. Ukraine does not seek Russia’s collapse, only to drive its invading army from Ukrainian soil.
Russia also knows that use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine will result in a dramatic and unpredictable response from America and would bring it closer to a nuclear war it cannot win.
We need to stop letting Russia bully us. It’s high time we do more to protect our people and our allies. As I’ve said (over and over!), what is happening in Ukraine is only one part of Russia’s war against the West, against us. We may not think we are at war with Russia, but Russia certainly believes it is at war with us. They have attacked our allies. They have attacked us. Let’s start acting like it.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of stories you should be reading
USA
Jena Griswold Sees 600 Percent Spike in Threats Since Trump Challenge (Rolling Stone)
Trump Media saved in 2022 by Russian-American under criminal investigation (The Guardian)
NATO AND RUSSIA
Germany, France and Poland: This moment may define our children’s future (Politico)
USA AND UKRAINE
Ten Answers to Skeptic’s Questions on Ukraine (The Cipher Brief)
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
