The Peace Deal That Never Was
Because all Trump really wants is to get back to business with Russia
Hot off the presses! (LOL remember when we used to have presses??) I was thrilled to co-author this piece titled, “America Abroad Has Never Been About Charity. It’s About Our National Interests,” with Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who served as commanding general of US Army Europe. The Trump administration may view our allies as “freeloaders,” but the truth is: the biggest beneficiary of our alliances is us.
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT!
The Trump administration this week declared it was giving peace in Ukraine one last try and if it didn’t work, oh well. 🤷🏻♀️
Of course, they haven’t made any real attempts at peace. Rather, they’ve blamed Ukraine over and over for the war while offering concessions to Russia, as I’ve written about here, here, and here.
This newest incarnation of a deal is—to use the most diplomatic language I can think of—total bullshit. At its core, it gives Russia all the territory it has taken by force and offers Ukraine nothing in return.
The main points of the deal are:
De jure US recognition of Crimea
De facto recognition of Russia’s occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine
A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO
The lifting of sanctions against Russia
Enhanced economic cooperation between the US and Russia, particularly in energy and industry.
Let’s take a look at each of these.
De jure US recognition of Crimea
To put this in the simplest terms: Crimea is part of Ukraine. Full stop. Russia took it by force in 2014 (remember the Little Green Men?) and the international community, including the UN, has affirmed this fact repeatedly. Recognizing Crimea as Russian would be a total break of the post-World War Two order, which set the precedent that land borders cannot be changed by force, and open a pandora’s box for future aggression from adversaries all over the globe (most imminently: China would view this as tacit agreement for it to take over Taiwan). International law is far from perfect, but we cannot legitimize its violation by capitulating to Russia.
As a wise senator once said, “The United States cannot recognize Putin’s claims or we risk establishing a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes, like the Chinese Communist Party, to imitate.” Unfortunately, that wise senator is now our dipshit secretary of state Marco Rubio, who has forgotten that just three years ago he cosponsored an amendment to forbid the US from ever recognizing any Russian claim over any part of Ukraine. Sigh.
Furthermore, Crimea serves as Russia’s primary military base in the Black Sea. If Russia is allowed to remain there, they will be able to continue attacks on Ukrainian cities, but also to disrupt trade routes and to threaten other regional allies, including Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey.
De facto recognition of Russia’s occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine
The same goes for recognizing Russia’s occupation of other parts of Ukraine. We cannot appease a dictator who has forced his way into occupying the sovereign territory of another country. I mean seriously, we fought a fucking world war over this precedent. If Putin is allowed this inch, he will take a mile.
Also, Russia hasn’t exactly been reliable when it comes to past agreements. In fact, they’ve broken every one and further escalated the conflict. Giving them a respite now will only fuel more conflict later. Within a few years, Putin would launch further pushes into Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe. Either we teach Putin the lesson now that aggression does not pay, or we will face further conflict.
Indeed, it was reported this week that Russian security services are turning to recruiting Ukrainians in occupied territories to help fill their ranks. This requires, of course, Russian indoctrination, meaning Russia’s imperialist ideology is being hammered into the heads of the next generation, including the next generation of some Ukrainians. Either we help Ukraine win this decisively now, or Russia will continue to be a problem for generations to come.
Furthermore, allowing recognition of any occupied territory in Ukraine would be to allow Russia to get away with its numerous war crimes. Russia has carried out massacres, deported Ukrainian children, and worked to wipe out Ukrainian language and culture. That’s not ok.
A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO
This is up to NATO, not Putin. Russia does not get to decide who joins our club and who doesn’t.
The lifting of sanctions against Russia and enhanced economic cooperation between the US and Russia
This is actually the end point Trump has been trying to get us to all along, in my opinion. He desperately wants to appease Putin and do business with the man he admires. These discussions have already begun, with administration officials beginning to outline business deals (including in energy and in minerals).
My guess is Trump doesn’t care one way or the other if this “deal” gets accepted or not. If Ukraine refuses to accept it (indeed, Zelenskyy has already said the Crimea recognition point is dead on arrival), Trump will blame Ukraine for the lack of a deal and then say the US cannot wait any longer to restart business with Russia. If somehow the deal is accepted, Trump will celebrate and say now it’s time to get back to business with Russia.
No Russian concessions
Russia is not being asked to concede anything. Nothing! Zero! Zip! Nada! When asked about this, Trump said Russia not taking all of Ukraine is a concession.
Two things. One, not taking over a sovereign country is not a concession. If that were the case, I have shown incredible generosity by conceding in not taking over Italy and declaring all its wine and olive oil mine. Same goes for every other sovereign nation I have not conquered. Or think of it this way: “Hi, neighbor. I’m taking your front lawn from you. I am being generous and providing concessions by not killing you and taking your entire house and property.”
Two—and I feel this is a point that doesn’t get mentioned enough—Russia was not able to take all of Ukraine! It tried and it failed. You can’t concede something you never had.
The Russians cannot believe their luck
I mean this literally. The US pivot to Russia has been so fast and furious, the Russians are actually scared it’s a trap.
And it’s not just in terms of the peace deal. Trump is also destabilizing the US from within, a main objective of Russian influence operations (see, for example, the evisceration of USAID and American soft power along with it) and has surrounded himself with Russian sycophants who eagerly participate in Russian propaganda efforts. In just the latest example of this, Ed Martin, Trump’s pick to be DC US attorney, has reached out to far-right (ahem, pro-Russia) political parties in Europe, including AfD’s Petr Bystron (who was caught by Czech intelligence accepting 20,000 euros from his Russian handler, allegedly), and has appeared on Russian state media more than 100 times.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of things you should be reading
RUSSIA’S HYBRID WAR
Russia is upping hybrid attacks against Europe, Dutch intelligence says (NBC News)
EXCELLENT RESOURCES!
Just Security has launched WHAT JUST HAPPENED? as well as a litigation tracker to help readers keep up with the chaos
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
