MISSION: POSSIBLE
Ukraine's Ethan Hunts pull off a massive op
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT!
Tom Cruise’s Ethan Hunt accepts impossible missions, but (spoiler alert!) they’re never actually impossible because he always manages to pull them off. Ergo, they were possible all along.
Turns out, Ukraine has a few Ethan Hunts of their own. And holy wowzers did they pull off what must have seemed to some an impossible mission.
Operation Spiderweb was a year-and-a-half in the making, involved serious ingenuity and risks, and had a spectacular outcome: the destruction of 40 Russian military aircraft, including strategic bombers and AWACS (airborne early warning and control aircraft). Ukraine took out about a third of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers. The destruction is estimated at $7 billion.
Ukraine’s internal intelligence service, the SBU, planned and executed the op, which involved smuggling hundreds of small drones into Russia hidden inside wooden containers with retractable roofs. The wooden containers were later moved by truck to be left near the targeted airfields, including one 2,500 miles from Ukraine. At the right moment, the roofs retracted and the drones took off, each controlled by its own pilot in Ukraine.
It’s incredible that nothing about this op leaked. Indeed, Ukraine has shown remarkable discipline throughout this war. Regardless of how messy and chaotic things must be behind the scenes (and they must be; this is a war), Zelenskyy and his crew have stuck to strict messaging and continuously broadcast unity. Secrets don’t get out.
Spiderweb will be studied by intelligence and military services across the globe. How did Ukraine pull it off? But also: how should states prepare to defend against such attacks? Europe and the US should be working with Ukraine to learn how to develop our own drone capabilities, both offensive and defensive. The future of war is here, and Ukraine is the only country on the planet with deep experience in it and a record of success.
About those truck drivers
Part of the plan involved Russian truck drivers picking up the wooden houses and delivering them to specific locations. Were they witting participants or were they duped? Zelenskyy claims everyone who was wittingly involved in the operation has been removed from Russia. One driver interviewed by Russian state TV said he was surprised when the drones flew out of his truck, claiming he threw rocks at them to try to bring them down. A Russian telegram channel, believed to be associated with Russia’s security services, said the drivers all told similar stories about being booked by businessmen to deliver the wooden crates.
It’s possible, then, that Ukrainian intelligence hired gig workers, like the drivers, to unwittingly carry out parts of the operation. This is all the more satisfying given Russia’s online recruitment of proxies to carry out its hybrid attacks in Europe, which, by the way, isn’t even considered by most to be a belligerent in this war!
Indeed, given the increased tempo of sabotage we are seeing both in occupied Ukraine and inside Russia, it sure looks like Ukrainian intelligence is giving Russia a taste of its own hybrid war medicine: recruiting proxies through telegram to carry out attacks on its behalf. Just this week, rebel groups claimed several sabotage attacks on railway systems in eastern Ukraine used by Russia to transport weapons and supplies. At least two strategic oil depots, used to refuel Russia’s military near the front lines, caught fire. Another explosion stopped railway traffic in Russia. And two bridges were destroyed in Russia. The Russian government has called them terrorist attacks, but no more information has come out about who was behind them. It seems likely we will see an increased tempo in such attacks in the coming weeks. (I’d also like to note here quickly that Ukraine’s targets are military; Russia’s, both in Ukraine and in Europe, are not.)
Nothing is impossible
All this to say: Ukrainian victory is possible. In fact, it’s right there, waiting for us to grasp it. Russia’s economy remains teetering. This has domestic effects, but it also means replacing $7 billion worth of aircraft and weapons poses a wee bit of a challenge. Domestic opinion of Putin and the war is shifting. The more destabilization ops carried out inside Russia (and there will be more), the more the population will be agitated. They’ll need somewhere to direct that anger. All of which spells a Russian defeat. The more support Ukraine has, the faster we’ll get there.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of things you should be reading
RUSSIAN KILLER BEARS
Hidden Bear: The GRU hackers of Russia’s most notorious kill squad (The Insider)
Christo Grozev Is the Man Putin Couldn’t Kill (New York Times)
EXCELLENT RESOURCES!
Just Security has launched WHAT JUST HAPPENED? as well as a litigation tracker to help readers keep up with the chaos
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
Regardless of its 40 or 10, the ability of the ukrainians to pull off this operation is still commendable. Any reduction in the capabilities and finite resource of their aviation bomber fleet is welcomed. If it was the orange-haired baboon, he would have posted and telegraph about an upcoming attack that is the "greatest ever"on social media.
It would great to see the numerous ethnic minorities in Russia stand up and agitate for Putin's removal. I'm sure that is on the ukrainians radar as well
Great read, thanks
Lol, credulous. The actual number of planes destroyed was in the single digits. Several of them had been non-operational and stripped for parts for years.
Fantastic PR. No meaningful affect on Russia’s aircraft fleet.