Greetings from the edge of Europe and NATO
My visit to the Russian-Estonian border coincided with lots of developments in Russia's hybrid war against Europe and the West
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ALEX’S WEEKLY RANT!
I’ve been traveling around Estonia the last few days and made my way to Narva, a border town separated from Russia by a narrow river. It was here, in May last year, that Russian Coast Guard officers moved buoys marking the border while at the same time “accidentally” publishing (then deleting) a Russian Defense Ministry proposal to change its maritime borders with Estonia. Active measures take many forms.
People had warned me Narva isn’t beautiful (it’s not) but I wanted to see the edge of Europe and NATO for myself.
The Russian threat is very real for those living in countries that border it. The bridge that connects Narva to Ivangorod, Russia, about 100 miles from St. Petersburg, I imagine was once bustling with people and cars coming and going. Today, it is covered in barbed wire and blocked by concrete bollards. Estonian border guards allow handfuls of people into the border building at a time, then search them for sanctioned items before allowing them to walk across, dragging their suitcases and bags behind them. A few are also allowed into Estonia, or, I suppose more accurately, allowed back in after visiting family on the other side. I would imagine they, too, are searched and asked some pointed questions.
The same day I visited Narva, a Russian fighter jet entered Estonian airspace and attempted to interfere with the Estonian Navy’s maneuvers to turn back a Russian shadow fleet vessel. You can see video of the incident here. As
pointed out, the incident removes any deniability about Russian state control over the shadow fleet.The ship, called Jaguar, was unflagged, a violation of maritime law. It was likely unflagged because the vessel is nowhere near up to standard. As such, not only is it likely carrying sanctioned cargo, but also it poses an enormous risk to the environment and to the underwater infrastructure lining the floor of the Baltic Sea. Indeed, several cables have been damaged by such shadow fleet vessels dragging their anchors over pipelines and cables. Whether it is intentional or not remains a debate, although no matter how you look at it, it is negligent.
Elsewhere in Europe, the news kept reminding me how Russia was escalating its hybrid war. The Polish government officially blamed Russian intelligence services for directing proxies to set fire to a shopping mall in Warsaw last year.
It is one of the clearest cases tying an attack directly to Russian intelligence. As a result, Poland closed the Russian consulate in Krakow.
On Wednesday, Germany announced it had arrested three Ukrainian refugees who had plotted to place bombs (!) on transport planes in Europe, on behalf of Russia. The plan sounds similar to one uncovered last year after two DHL packages exploded, one in Germany, the other in the UK. Luckily, they exploded as they were being loaded, and not on the plane, as that might have brought the plane down. That DHL plot was reportedly organized by Russian military intelligence (GRU), and the group had planned to place similar devices on planes traveling to the US and Canada. Go back and read that again, but this time, replace “Russia” with “al-Qaeda” or “ISIS” and let me know if you’d call it terrorism or not, because I think Russia is a terrorist state.
This follows on the heels of this investigation by New Lines Magazine (featuring a quote from moi!) about Russia using children, children, as unwitting suicide bombers in Ukraine. I’m guessing it won’t be long before such tactics start appearing in Europe.
Separately, the UK announced it is investigating the firebombing of several assets of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, including two properties and a car. Investigators are looking into whether a state adversary was involved (probably Russia or Iran, although I know where my money lies).
All the while, Europe last weekend set an ultimatum for Putin to sign on to a 30-day ceasefire, beginning last Monday. Europe threatened repercussions if Putin didn’t comply.
Well, Monday came and went, while Putin insisted that Zelenskyy should meet him face-to-face in Istanbul. Zelenskyy said ok, so Europe decided to hold off on those threatening repercussions. Then, Putin was a no-show in Istanbul.
So, to recap: Russia continues its hybrid fuckery in Europe, and Putin keeps stringing Europe along.
What will Europe do in response to all this?
I don’t know, but I do have an opinion about what Europe should do in response. Europe needs to punch back.
What does this mean?
The best antidote to all of this is for Ukraine to win. As I’ve said many times, the war in Ukraine is inextricably linked to Putin’s shadow war of destabilization in Europe and the US. A Ukrainian defeat of Russia would change the dynamic and weaken Russia internally. As is, Russia is not winning the war. After the opening full-scale invasion, Russia controlled 30 percent of Ukraine. Now, it controls 19 percent, while suffering one million casualties. One million! With a bit more support, Ukraine will win. And we should make that message loud and clear.
At the same time, Ukraine is becoming the world’s most advanced military, and the only one with expertise in fighting wars of the future dominated by drones. We should be learning from them.
Europe should provide Ukraine sky cover. Not only would this provide needed support, it would help change the narrative and would almost certainly result in a motivational boost on the side of the West.
Europe also should deny/revoke visas from Russians, crack down more on anyone (lawyers, bankers, etc.) helping launder Russian money and/or evading sanctions, build legislation to allow for stopping individuals carrying out Russian propaganda and malign information operations on behalf of Russian security services or other Russian state institutions, like RT (I discussed this a bit last week), and find ways to take back control of the information space in our favor (that is, in favor of facts).
There are also some great opportunities for offensive covert actions. I do hope Western intelligence services are brainstorming the possibilities.
THE WEEK’S LINKS
A roundup of things you should be reading
SPYING NEWS
Ukraine says it has busted Hungarian spy ring collecting military data (The Guardian)
Six Bulgarians jailed for spying for Russia (BBC)
EXCELLENT RESOURCES!
Just Security has launched WHAT JUST HAPPENED? as well as a litigation tracker to help readers keep up with the chaos
Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?
Love what you are doing.
While we know US infrastructure is in bad shape, one must wonder whether the problems with Newark ATC or 2 Sundays ago with ATL ATC were Russian Hybrid actions or just shitty infrastructure? Also, amazing in the UK a substation fire cut power largely only to Heathrow? Seems like Russian Hybrid action to me.